Election report

Pre-election tension in Portugal

What future for Portugal? Last Sundays elections gave an historical victory to the socialist Party (PS) who won a majority in parliament of 45%. Portugal turned to the left, and for the first time in 30 years there is a majority of leftists parties in parliament, of about 59%.
Behind the figures hides a continuous climate of political instability that threatens a prosperous future for the Mediterranean state.
After 3 consecutive governments failing to complete their mandate president Jorge Sampaio decided to dissolve the parliament and call for early elections. The main reasons behind the dramatic decision was the sharp rise in unemployment and a series of scandals that shook the Portuguese establishment.
For a while now there is talks of a collective depression that is forcing Portugal to stagnate. The lack of democratic alternative and a significant variety of political projects has created a depressing atmosphere.Uncharacteristically, after the results of the election were made public there was no major popular celebration in the streets. No doubt the people were happy to get rid of the center right-coalition of the social democrats (PSD) and the neo-conservatives (CDS), but the Portuguese are far from being optimistic about the future.These results instead of clearing up the general confusion have only contributed to further instability.
Within the new opposition both major candidates have announced their departure from politics. The still ruling Prime Minister Pedro Santana Lopes, after weeks of a victimizing electoral campaign, showed his disappointment with his own party. When the results came out he said, “We have not fulfilled our objectives. We have fail Portugal and ourselves. But what makes me sadder is that key elements within our party contributed to our downfall”.In fact, within one hour after Santana’s announcement 2 major key figures in PSD, an internal affairs minister in the nineties, Marques Mendes, and the city Mayor of Vila nova de Gaia, Filipe Menezes, announced their nominations for the leadership of the party.Alberto Joao Jardim, the controversial long time leader of Madeira said, “Some elements in our party should be more careful. This was a humiliatingly defeat, and at the moment it is necessary to reflect peacefully about the future”.Nevertheless other figures in the party already shown their support for quick change. Teresa Gouveia, ex-foreign affairs Minister, has shown her support for Mendes. She said, “PSD, confronted with this defeat is in need of dramatic change, which will allow us to return the party to itself and Portugal”. She added, “Our party has to become a credible and serious opposition and has to fight bravely in the next two battles, the local elections and in the future Presidentials.”Filipe Menezes has also received letters of support and all around the country there are rumors that Manuela Ferreira Leite, an ex-education minister terribly unpopular among students, will be announcing her nomination soon.The division in the party between those who want change and those who do not is only too obvious and will inevitably be very damaging for the party.
The neo-conservatives (CDS) have also seen better days. Their popular leader was one of the few members of the still ruling government that stands firm in terms of popularity, but also feels his time has passed. He said, “It is time for CDS-PP to find a new path.”Many voices in the party have asked the leader to reconsider, in particular senior members of JP (Popular Youth), the youth militancy of CDS. Joao Almeida, Leader of the JP in Porto, said, “We do not give up on Dr Paulo Portas, in the name of the Portuguese youth that does not believe in this new path”. Antonio Pires de Lima, CDS vice-president, said, “I will not side with these appeals, because for me before the politician there is the men. I have been friends with Mr. Portas for 36 years and I must respect the decision he has taken.” He went on to say, “I will not be a nominee. I believe Telmo Correia, who is still our tourism minister, is a positive alternative for the leadership of the party”.
While both the major right-wing parties sink deeper in division the left although apparently being united, is also deeply divided.The Portuguese communist party (PCP) became the third strongest party in parliament but failed to form a coalition with the socialists to defeat the right, a tactic so often used in the past.
The Portuguese left block was also another great winners in these election as they went up from 3 MPs to 8. Anticipating a clear socialist victory they promised a fierce opposition to the future socialist government.
Within the victorious Socialist party there are also some elements of dissent, namely those behind the famous writer and MP Manuel Alegre, who came second in the recent internal socialist elections. The current leader, and future Portuguese Prime Minister, Jose Socrates is a somewhat sinister figure. The public is aware of Socrates limitations but the word in the streets is that the next government will indirectly be conducted by Antonio Vitorino, the ex European commissioner for Human rights.Francisco Almeida, a high rated lawyer from Lisbon wrote, “In one side it is positive to have a Vitorino in the field in compensation for the rubbish that Socrates will inevitably concentrate in this socialist government. Altogether, there is hope.”
Abstention in the elections went down significantly. But two factors led us to believe the Portuguese are searching for alternatives. Blank votes doubled and the only party that has presented a dramatically different project, the left block, more then doubled their power in parliament. Most of those votes were from young people, showing a new generation tired of the two party hegemony (PSD and PS) that has controlled post-revolutionary politics in Portugal.It is impossible to speculate precisely about the future, but whatever it will be, it will not be easy.